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新加坡Telegram群组:Softer exports moving into 2023?

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PETALING JAYA: As Malaysia’s exports contracted for the second consecutive month in November, this has raised concerns about the country’s exports outlook moving into 2023.

Over the past months, exports have played a crucial role in supporting the Malaysian economy, especially at a time when domestic demand remained soft at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, with the continued contraction of exports on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, there are expectations that such a trend would weigh down the country’s growth momentum ahead.

In November 2022, Malaysia’s exports dipped by 1% m-o-m to RM130.24bil as compared to RM131.59bil in October 2022. This followed a contraction of 8.8% m-o-m earlier in October.

Economist Aimi Zulhazmi Abdul Rashid told StarBiz the 1% m-o-m contraction in November can be read as one of the early signals for the global economic slowdown next year.

The associate professor at Universiti Kuala Lumpur’s Business School projected a slower growth for Malaysia’s trade figures in 2023, although he pointed out that the figures will still be on “positive notes”.

“The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are already projecting a slower global economy next year, hence the developed economies in the West will move into recession.

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“The silver lining is that the Asian region will still be putting up positive numbers in 2023, albeit at a slower rate than 2022.

“The reopening of China’s economy after the lockdowns will help the region including Malaysia to have a bit of a buffer for positive trade numbers, considering that China has been Malaysia’s biggest trade partner for the last 12 years,” he said.

Aimi Zulhazmi added that the government must be prepared to stimulate the domestic economy as the engine of growth for the country’s gross domestic product in 2023.

Meanwhile, Malaysia University of Science and Technology economics professor Geoffrey Williams said that Malaysia’s export growth has been slowing on a monthly basis since August.

The export momentum appears to be normalising after the recovery from the low base during the movement control order, according to him.

“Part of the performance is due to re-exports of products not produced in Malaysia and growth in exports of Malaysian products has been slowing for the last three months.

“We cannot read too much into one month of data but the past few months does suggest slowing growth and a return to more normal activities,” he said.

In a statement yesterday, the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) reported that Malaysia’s trade and imports also contracted month-on-month in November by 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

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